- Stock markets seem to be celebrating the ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the resulting decline in the price of oil. Asia markets were up and Europe was flat in early trading. S&P futures were flat this morning too, following a decline in the price of oil to $68 per barrel over the last few days.
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, despite some military action yesterday, and the markets are celebrating.
All major global indexes in Asia were up this morning. The VIX “fear” index (which measures volatility) was down nearly 13% and the price of oil stayed at $68 per barrel. Europe was flat. S&P futures are also flat this morning—a possible signal that investors are not yet ready to sell off for short-term profits.
Instead, with the geopolitical background looking calmer, investors have gone into “risk-on!” mode. The Nasdaq 100 hit a record high yesterday as tech stocks went through the roof. Coinbase was up 12%. Bitcoin is above $106K this morning. The S&P 500 is within a whisker of a new record, too.
“Financial markets have priced in an Iran-Israel ceasefire holding,” UBS’s Paul Donovan told clients this morning. “That skews the risks if there is any further military activity. Intelligence reports suggesting the US failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear program are unlikely to impact markets directly (investors do not price extreme tail risks), but that failure probably keeps tensions high in the region (which markets do care about).”
Convera’s Antonio Ruggiero agreed: “Markets showed a modest revival in risk appetite—oil prices and the dollar declined, while the S&P rose nearly 1%,” he said in a note seen by Fortune.
Investors may also be hoping for further declines in the price of oil (which would be good for stocks). “The decline [in the price of oil] first occurred as Iran’s response was perceived by the market as de-escalatory and then extended as news of an Israel-Iran ceasefire emerged. Our commodities team estimates that Brent would be trading in the mid-60s in the absence of a geopolitical risk premium, suggesting further declines are possible if the ceasefire solidifies,” Goldman Sachs’ Kevin Daly and Clemens Grafe told their clients.
Here’s a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York:
- S&P futures were flat this morning, premarket. The S&P 500 was up 1.11% yesterday and is now back above 6000.
- Brent Crude was $68 per barrel this morning, remaining below its peak from a few days ago when the U.S. bombed Iran.
- The dollar resumed its downward trend. It had risen to $99 against other currencies on the DXY but sank to just over $98 after the ceasefire finally took hold.
- Stoxx Europe 600 was flat in early trading.
- China’s CSI 300 was up 1.44%.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.39%
- The VIX was down 12%
- Nasdaq 100 regained 1.53% yesterday as tech stocks drove the action.
- Coinbase was up 12%.
- Reddit was up 5%.
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